i was walking back from lunch one afternoon last month w/ ?????? who has been involved in the ?????? experiments more or less since the beginning of the “activity.” we were talking about the last test. well, you get the idea. i said that everyone at s-68 had expected a crash; of course, we knew it could and should go down 70 percent or 80 percent, “but not 96 percent,” she finished my sentence.
i opened my mouth to deliver the next line, but she beat me to it. “it can go down to zero,” she said.
“it can go down to zero.” you hear the phrase so often now.
it is an obvious fact that i am just now facing up to. it is also a fact incredibly easy to forget (anything), even for the skeptics. last week, a colleague of Bames argued that ?????? might be overvalued by “at least” 70 percent. i said that then their worst-case scenario was far too optimistic. i was right. but did i think that it could go down 96 percent? 100 percent?
i don’t pretend to have been any more prescient than anybody else about this. in fact, i was not. let me repeat: for a long time i thought of myself as a skeptic. i assumed there would be not just a correction, but a crash. it was hard to believe. i read up on speculative crushes and crashes of the past and the conclusions were debatable. verily, a lot of them sounded awfully similar to the one of last month. but zero?
there is just too much in this thing.