ROMO, the reality of missing out

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Big tech doesn’t build anything. It’s not likely to give us vaccines or diagnostic tests. We don’t even seem to know how to make a…
Big tech doesn’t build anything. It’s not likely to give us vaccines or diagnostic tests. We don’t even seem to know how to make a cotton swab. Those hoping the US could turn its dominant tech industry into a dynamo of innovation against the pandemic will be disappointed. The pandemic shows that the US is no longer much good at coming up with technologies relevant to our most basic needs. Combining these large-scale data with a transmission model of social interactions and transmission in four settings (home, school, work, other) we were able to simulate where contacts are typically made, and how effective different approaches might be. [...] If there were 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day, it meant around 150,000 to 400,000 contacts would be quarantined each day under the scenarios we considered. [...] We also looked Iceland-scale mass… Read More...

irradiance and solar zenith angle

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We show case and death counts had significantly lower growth rates at higher temperatures (>14 °C) when aligned for stage in the epidemic. We show…
We show case and death counts had significantly lower growth rates at higher temperatures (>14 °C) when aligned for stage in the epidemic. We show irradiance and in particular solar zenith angle in combination with cloudopacity explain COVID-19 morbidity and mortality growth better than temperature. Healthy people in their 30s and 40s barely sick with covid-19 are dying from strokes People are dying from coronavirus because we’re not fast enough at clinical research we propose that reduced innate antiviral defenses coupled with exuberant inflammatory cytokine production are the defining and driving feature of COVID-19. COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons Modelling COVID-19 exit strategies for policy makers in the United Kingdom Experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork. Hospitals in the state must be… Read More...

a few repeated contacts

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Our models demonstrate that while social distancing measures clearly do flatten the curve, strategic reduction of contact can strongly increase their efficiency, introducing the possibility…
Our models demonstrate that while social distancing measures clearly do flatten the curve, strategic reduction of contact can strongly increase their efficiency, introducing the possibility of allowing some social contact while keeping risks low. Limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts emerges as the most effective strategy. More than 21 percent of around 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week were found to have them [...] possibly as many as 2.7 million [...] It would mean that the fatality rate from the virus was relatively low, about 0.5 percent [more] The challenges of antibody testing for Covid-19 -- no tests to date have performed well scientists say the true potential of the rapidly developed antibody tests is still unknown Developing antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 Nearly all Covid-19 patients put on ventilators in New… Read More...

the strength of your immune system

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COVID-19 is, in many ways, proving to be a disease of uncertainty. According to a new study from Italy, some 43 percent of people with…
COVID-19 is, in many ways, proving to be a disease of uncertainty. According to a new study from Italy, some 43 percent of people with the virus have no symptoms. Among those who do develop symptoms, it is common to feel sick in uncomfortable but familiar ways—congestion, fever, aches, and general malaise. Many people start to feel a little bit better. Then, for many, comes a dramatic tipping point. “Some people really fall off the cliff, and we don’t have good predictors of who it’s going to happen to,” Stephen Thomas, the chair of infectious diseases at Upstate University Hospital, told me. Those people will become short of breath, their heart racing and mind detached from reality. They experience organ failure and spend weeks in the ICU, if they survive at all. Meanwhile, many others simply keep feeling better and… Read More...

Air pollution, testicles, farts, stool, sanitizers

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Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths. Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions. We found…
Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths. Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions. We found that when the person said “stay healthy,” numerous droplets ranging from 20 to 500 μm were generated Parents name their baby 'Sanitiser' Out of Spain’s 40,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, 5,400 — nearly 14 percent — are medical professionals. In France, the public hospital system in Paris has tallied 490 infected staff members, a small but growing proportion of the system’s 100,000 or so employees. France: By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. Swedish data again -… Read More...

Oil below $0

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Experts say vast deserts, absence of life, may indicate Mars was once run by conservatives
New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it. It took only 10 days for signs that the approach here — “elimination” rather than the “containment” goal of the United States and other Western countries — is working. [...] The health minister was caught mountain biking and taking his family to the beach. He was publicly chastised by Ardern, who said she would have fired him if it weren’t disruptive to the crisis response. [...] “Other countries have had a gradual ramp-up, but our approach is exactly the opposite,” he said. While other Western countries have tried to slow the disease and “flatten the curve,” New Zealand has tried to stamp it out entirely. [Washington Post | The Conversation Carl T. Bergstrom: letting the epidemic go through to herd immunity is worse than it sounds and Some nations may… Read More...

Two years

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“Those with antibodies will be able to travel and work, and the rest will be discriminated against.”
Without widespread testing and surveillance, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York, “we won’t be able to quickly identify and isolate cases in which the patients are presymptomatic or asymptomatic, and thus community transmission could be re-established.” Without a vaccine, the virus is expected to circulate for years, and the death tally will rise over time. [...] Only when tens of thousands of antibody tests are done will we know how many silent carriers there may be in the United States. The C.D.C. has suggested it might be 25 percent of those who test positive. Researchers in Iceland said it might be double that. [...] There may be good news buried in this inconsistency: The virus may also be mutating to cause fewer symptoms. In the movies, viruses become more deadly. In reality, they usually become… Read More...

the amount of oxygen

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A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week
A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned. [STAT] More than 900 staffers in NYC's public hospitals have tested positive for COVID-19 By late March, more than 54 doctors in Italy had already died, and in the Lombardy region of northern Italy, one of the worst hit regions in the world, 20% of the healthcare workforce have become confirmed cases. Now, in the United States, as large numbers of healthcare professionals are getting diagnosed with COVID-19 in Boston, New York, and other hotspot cities, young doctors are writing their wills and making provisional funeral plans. [...] Because healthcare workers are exposed to the sickest patients—often without access… Read More...

Was his help inshored in the Stork and Pelican against bungelars, flu and third risk parties?

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The virus seems to have binary properties: not very contageous under most circumstances, but highly contagious in others.
Nudists warned by police to cover up their mouths for coronavirus Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells, warn scientists The virus seems to have binary properties: not very contageous under most circumstances, but highly contagious in others. Three novel alphacoronaviruses and three novel betacoronaviruses were detected for the first time in bats in Myanmar. Ongoing land use change remains a prominent driver of zoonotic disease emergence in Myanmar, bringing humans into ever closer contact with wildlife, and justifying continued surveillance and vigilance at broad scales. What is required to prevent a second major outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon lifting the quarantine of Wuhan city, China [PDF | Cell.com] Study suggests extending school and workplace closures in Wuhan until April, rather than March, would likely delay a second wave of cases until later in the year, relieving… Read More...

Zarathustra descended alone from the mountains, encountering no one

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The Best Hopes for a Coronavirus Drug Researchers modelling the spread of the coronavirus emphasise the importance of avoiding busy indoor spaces Why Does the…
The Best Hopes for a Coronavirus Drug Researchers modelling the spread of the coronavirus emphasise the importance of avoiding busy indoor spaces Why Does the Trump Administration Keep Seizing Hospitals’ Coronavirus Supplies? Faced with Covid-19, Germany resisted better than the other major European countries. If the number of contaminations is very high, mortality is much lower than in Italy, Spain, or France. Is there a German model in the fight against coronavirus? [France Culture | Google Translate] Italy working on coronavirus tracing app to help lockdown exit Sweden has no mandatory quarantines and few limitations on free movement. Elementary schools remain open; malls, gyms and shopping streets are far from empty. [...] even as provisional intensive care units –– and makeshift morgues –– have been set up in the Swedish capital, and the government is considering stricter measures, some sidewalk… Read More...

‘there is light somewhere. it may not be much light but it beats the darkness.’ –Charles Bukowski

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How will we know when to reopen the country?
There’s a lot of good news mixed in with the bad. Here are some positive things we’ve learned in the last week The next emerging infectious disease could easily be more contagious, more fatal, or both. Dr Cassidy Nelson on the twelve best ways to stop the next pandemic (and limit COVID-19) Exploratory analyses highlight a potential additional link between COVID-19 and suicidal behavior, suggesting that a portion of individuals may be intentionally exposing themselves to the virus with intent to kill themselves. [PsyArXiv] An article published in the Journal of Family Violence in January 2020 found that between 62 and 72 percent of women (the only gender surveyed) have been stalked, and 60 to 63 percent have experienced technology-based abuse by an intimate partner. “Technology is not the only tactic; it is one of many,” said Erica Olsen. “Today’s… Read More...

The World vs. SARS-CoV-2, 4/6

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This virus cannot go from person to person that easily. It needs us to be close. It needs us to be within 6 feet. If we just distance ourselves, this virus can't sustain itself and it will go out.
Panama is quarantining women and men on different days during its coronavirus lockdown Around the world, seismologists are observing a lot less ambient seismic noise -- meaning, the vibrations generated by cars, trains, buses and people going about their daily lives. And in the absence of that noise, Earth's upper crust is moving just a little less. [CNN] What NASA is doing to keep COVID-19 off the space station Several dogs and cats have tested positive to COVID-19 virus following close contact with infected humans. Studies are underway to better understand the susceptibility of different animal species to the COVID-19 virus and to assess infection dynamics in susceptible animal species. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that animals infected by humans are playing a role in the spread of COVID-19. Human outbreaks are driven by person to person contact.… Read More...

The World vs. SARS-CoV-2, 4/3

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Most experts agree that wearing a face mask can stop some virus-laden watery droplets that are thought to be a main coronavirus vector and are…
Most experts agree that wearing a face mask can stop some virus-laden watery droplets that are thought to be a main coronavirus vector and are expelled into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, just breathes out [Financial Times] or talks [CNN] The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal. From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute. Both small and large amounts of… Read More...

The World vs. SARS-CoV-2, 4/1

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Data show that COVID-19 is now the No. 3 leading cause of daily deaths in the U.S. China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence…
Data show that COVID-19 is now the No. 3 leading cause of daily deaths in the U.S. China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says Barely a month before Europe embarked on a scramble for masks, ventilators and testing kits to fight coronavirus, governments told Brussels their healthcare systems were ready and there was no need to order more stocks, EU documents show. [Reuters] Here, we attempt to present an initial record of the federal government’s important official actions and communications over the past months, with a particular emphasis on the rules, regulation, and guidance related to the public health challenge. Using the assumption that the suppression policy can achieve R0 = 1, we assess that it should be kept in place between 30 and 34 weeks. We further show that stopping the suppression policy before six weeks does… Read More...

The World vs. SARS-CoV-2

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I said, ‘You know, we don’t have a valid process for replacing House members if we’re all killed by a terrorist attack.’ He said, ‘What do I care? I’ll be dead.’
The Seattle area, home of the first known coronavirus case in the United States and the place where the virus claimed 37 of its first 50 victims, is now seeing evidence that strict containment strategies, imposed in the earliest days of the outbreak, are beginning to pay off. While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4. The study found high levels of contamination on commonly used surfaces and in the air of patients' rooms. Samples of air from hallways outside of patient rooms were also positive. [WOWT] Some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. Based on data… Read More...

‘History, Stephen said, is a nightmare from which I am trying to awake.’ –James Joyce

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Science will come up with solutions
Coronavirus Info-Database, an attempt to organize the disparate papers, articles and links Nuclear scientists in Austria are closing in on new coronavirus testing kits that could dramatically lower the cost and time it takes to diagnose people for the disease. Covid-19 diagnosis could drop to 10 to 15 euros a person. We need to test as many people as possible. If we know who is infected, who is not and who has recovered, we could greatly relax social isolation requirements and send both the uninfected and the recovered back to work. Although our health-care system is now struggling to produce enough tests even for those who are likely infected, we recommend a massive mobilization that would allow hundreds of millions to be tested. There are two types of tests, and expanding both would be necessary. The polymerase chain reaction, or… Read More...